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Scenario Modeling & What-If Analysis

Evaluate potential business scenarios in hours, not days, by dynamically modeling financial impacts.

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Category:
CFO / Group Finance

Overview

This use case provides a sandbox for Finance to model various hypothetical scenarios and their financial outcomes. It's geared towards FP&A teams and strategists who need to answer questions like "What if we enter a recession next year?" or "What if we acquire a competitor?" or "What if raw material prices increase 20%?". With Keboola, they can adjust assumptions and drivers in a controlled copy of the financial model and instantly see the projected P&L, balance sheet, and cash flow under those conditions.

This capability is crucial for complex industries where external volatility (market changes, regulatory shifts) or strategic decisions (M&A, expansions) have significant ripple effects on finances. The seasoned tone highlights how this enables management to make decisions with eyes wide open to financial consequences, akin to having a financial crystal ball built on real data.

Your Challenges

Slow, Disconnected Analysis

In many companies, running a scenario means a lot of manual work. Finance might build a one-off model or tweak the official budget model (risking errors).

Limited Scope (ignoring integrated impacts)

A quick and dirty scenario might only focus on part of the picture (e.g., "if revenue drops 10%, profit drops X" assumed linear). It might ignore balance sheet and cash flow implications, or second-order effects (like cost structure changes).

Difficulty Comparing Scenarios

When scenarios are modeled in separate spreadsheets or not at all, it's challenging to present side-by-side outcomes. Often, management sees one scenario at a time in isolation.

Lack of Strategic Confidence

Ultimately, if finance cannot robustly model scenarios, strategic decisions carry more uncertainty. This may result in overly conservative decisions (fear of unknown) or reckless ones (overconfidence without analysis).

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Our Solution & Value

Rapid Scenario Creation

With Keboola's unified data model, creating a scenario is often as easy as clicking "Clone Base Case" and changing a few driver inputs (like growth rates, cost inflation, investment levels). Want to see the impact of a 10% revenue drop? Change one assumption and the entire financial forecast updates.

Comprehensive Financial Impact

The scenario modeling covers the full triad of financial statements and key metrics. This means scenarios aren't just "income statement what-ifs" – they show how the balance sheet and cash flow are affected too.

Side-by-Side Comparison & Data Storytelling

Keboola can generate reports that put scenarios next to each other. For instance, a table or chart could show Base vs Downside vs Upside for revenue, profit, and cash, making differences crystal clear. It can also highlight the key assumption differences (so stakeholders know why they differ).

Integration of External Data & AI

Keboola can pull in external indicators (economic data, commodity prices, etc.) and even use AI models to generate scenario inputs. For example, a machine learning model might predict revenue under a recession scenario by analyzing past downturns – Keboola can incorporate that prediction as one scenario's driver set.

What systems can you connect?

Example Outputs

[stakeholder] CFO

  • Scenario summary report: a high-level comparison of perhaps 3 scenarios (Best case, Base case, Worst case) for next 2 years, showing key metrics – Revenue, EBIT, Cash, and maybe valuation metrics if relevant. Also, a narrative explanation for each scenario's context (e.g., "Worst case assumes recession with X% drop in volumes, leading to Y cost actions").
    Graphs might include a fan chart of possible EBITDA outcomes or a waterfall of the impact of various assumptions in the downside scenario relative to base.

[stakeholder] FP&A Scenario Analyst

  • Detailed scenario model output: full financial statements for each scenario by period, a breakdown of assumptions used in each scenario (like a table listing GDP growth, FX rates, unit sales, etc., for each scenario), and perhaps output from any risk analysis (like Monte Carlo simulation if they run one using Keboola's data – could show distribution of outcomes beyond just 3 scenarios).
    This is the working document they'd use to brief the CFO and answer drill-down questions (e.g., in Scenario Worst, which expenses did we cut versus Base?).

[stakeholder] Business Unit Manager

  • If scenarios are done at BU level as well, they might receive a view like: Base vs Downside revenue and operating profit for their business unit, so they understand the range of outcomes they might need to manage. For example, a Sales VP might see that in the downside scenario, their targets would be X and they might need cost adjustments of Y to still hit profit goals. It prepares them and aligns their contingency planning with Finance's view.

FAQs

How do we ensure the scenario results are realistic and not just random guesses?

The quality of scenarios depends on the assumptions. Keboola ensures the mechanics are right (i.e., given inputs, the financial outcomes are calculated correctly through the model). To get realistic assumptions, you involve cross-functional experts: e.g., sales forecasts under scenario X might come from the sales team's input, operations might provide cost adjustment plans under scenario Y, etc., all feeding into the central model. The platform makes it easy to integrate those inputs. Also, because you can include external data (like macro forecasts) and even build statistical models, your scenario assumptions can be data-driven. It's advisable to back-test scenarios: for instance, apply your scenario model to past situations (e.g., the 2020 pandemic year) to see if it would have produced a reasonable range that included actual outcomes. This builds confidence that the scenarios are grounded. Ultimately, Keboola gives you the toolset to be roughly right quickly rather than precisely wrong with a huge effort – and you can always refine scenarios as new information comes in.

We already use Excel for what-ifs, what's the advantage of doing it in Keboola?

Speed, scope, and reliability. In Excel, a complex what-if might require multiple linked sheets and a lot of manual tweaking. It's easy to make a mistake or forget to change a cell, and suddenly your scenario is off. Keboola uses the controlled model that's been validated, so any scenario is just changing inputs – you're not rebuilding logic each time. It can handle far more complexity (hundreds of products, multiple years, etc.) without breaking, whereas Excel might slow down or get too unwieldy. And if someone wants a slightly different assumption, you can adjust and recompute in seconds, which in Excel could mean hours of rework. Also, in Keboola multiple people can collaborate on scenario inputs simultaneously (sales, finance, ops can each tweak their part), which is not straightforward in Excel. Lastly, Excel what-ifs often focus on the income statement; Keboola scenarios will give you full financials, providing a holistic view. So, it's about making scenario planning a strength of your finance function rather than a risky, once-in-a-while effort.

Can non-finance executives play with scenarios or is it too technical?

If desired, you can expose a simplified interface to non-finance users – for example, a slider or input form for key variables (like % sales change, or investment level) that they can adjust and see headline impacts. Keboola can connect with BI tools to present such an interface. Many times, finance teams will curate a few scenarios and then discuss with executives, rather than letting them free-form change everything (to avoid misinterpretation). But certainly, in workshops or planning meetings, the FP&A team can drive the scenario tool live, taking input like "what if we cut marketing by 10%?" and showing the result instantly – this engages executives more in the process. The technical heavy-lifting is under the hood; the interface can be as user-friendly as needed. Some companies have even given division managers a "scenario sandbox" for their unit, where they can test ideas (with guardrails). All in all, Keboola's scenario capability can be made very accessible with the right front-end, so it's not just a back-office thing but a strategic decision support tool for leadership.

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